Are you wondering if a lot that backs to the Marjorie Harris Carr Cross Florida Greenway is worth more than an interior parcel in Turning Hawk II? You are not alone. Buyers love the idea of stepping from their yard onto a scenic trail, and sellers want to know if that lifestyle edge shows up in price or speed to contract. In this guide, you will learn a clear, local framework to test the premium in Turning Hawk II using real comps and days‑on‑market data, plus practical rules you can use right now. Let’s dive in.
Define “adjacent” in Turning Hawk II
Before you compare sales, define adjacency in a way you can replicate.
- Adjacent: the parcel’s boundary directly touches the Cross Florida Greenway boundary.
- Near‑adjacent: the parcel’s center point sits within about 0.25 mile of the Greenway.
- Interior: all other parcels within Turning Hawk II that do not meet the criteria above.
Make a simple map using county GIS and the Greenway boundary to classify each parcel. This step keeps your analysis clean and prevents mixing apples with oranges.
What broader research suggests
Across studies summarized by respected planning and real estate groups, proximity to quality trails and greenways often shows a small to moderate uplift on nearby residential values. Reported ranges typically fall around the single digits, commonly 3 to 10 percent, with many studies clustering near 4 to 7 percent for high‑quality, well‑used trails. Effects vary by trail quality, neighborhood context, and parcel attributes. In Ocala and Marion County, where outdoor recreation and equestrian lifestyles are meaningful, adjacency can increase interest and urgency for a slice of buyers. Still, the true effect in Turning Hawk II depends on local demand, lot features, and the share of buyers who value trail access.
How to test the premium in Turning Hawk II
Step 1: Gather the right data
Build a parcel‑level dataset for the last 12 to 36 months, extending to 48 months only if the sample is thin and you adjust for market trends.
- Marion County Property Appraiser records for parcel details, acreage, and sales history.
- Marion County GIS and plat maps for accurate parcel polygons and subdivision boundaries.
- MLS records for list and sold prices, days on market, status history, photos, and concessions.
- Clerk of Court deed records to confirm arms‑length transfers.
- FEMA flood and wetlands layers to flag buildability constraints.
- The Greenway boundary from Florida DEP to tag adjacency precisely.
Step 2: Create clear comparison groups
Classify each sale as adjacent, near‑adjacent, or interior. For each, note key confounders you will control for:
- Lot size and usable acreage
- Road type and access
- Utilities (central vs well and septic)
- Zoning and allowable uses
- Build status and home size if improved
- Flood zone or wetlands exposure
- Sale date to account for market movement
Step 3: Start with descriptive stats
Compute medians and means for sale price, price per acre for vacant lots, and price per square foot for improved homes. Add days on market and sale‑to‑list ratio. This gives you a quick read on whether the adjacent group is trending higher or selling faster.
Step 4: Use matched pairs for a simple read
For every adjacent sale, match 1 to 3 interior sales that are close in time and similar on the basics. Aim for lot size within 10 to 20 percent, similar utilities, and the same build status. Then calculate the paired differences in price or price per acre, plus days on market. The median of those differences is your first estimate of a premium or discount.
Step 5: Confirm with a light regression
If you have enough sales, run a compact hedonic model. Use price or log price as the dependent variable and include an adjacency indicator along with controls for acreage, utilities, paved access, flood exposure, build status, and sale‑date fixed effects. The adjacency coefficient estimates the average marginal effect of bordering the Greenway, all else equal.
Step 6: Look for urgency signals
Compare median and percentile days on market, and check sale‑to‑list ratios. Quick sales under 30 days and stronger sale‑to‑list ratios among adjacent parcels suggest demand intensity even if the price premium is modest.
Step 7: Run sensitivity checks
- Vary the distance band for near‑adjacent to 0.25 and 0.5 miles.
- Restrict to similar lot‑size bands so acreage does not overwhelm the signal.
- Split the timeline if market conditions shifted.
- If the sample is small, pool with adjacent parcels in a nearby subdivision that borders the Greenway and include subdivision controls.
What outcomes to expect
Signs of a premium
If adjacency carries value in Turning Hawk II, you should see at least one of the following after controlling for the big factors:
- Higher sale prices or price per acre for adjacent parcels
- Shorter days on market
- Equal or higher sale‑to‑list ratios and occasional multiple‑offer notes
A plausible outcome, consistent with broader research, is a single‑digit percentage premium. Treat this as suggestive until your local sample confirms the pattern.
When the premium may be muted
You may see little to no uplift when other fundamentals dominate value. Examples include parcels with limited usable acreage due to wetlands, unpaved or awkward access, lack of utilities, or buyers who prioritize privacy over trail proximity. Legal access matters too. A parcel that “touches” the Greenway but lacks practical or permitted access may not command extra value.
Practical decision rules for buyers and sellers
Use these heuristics to guide pricing and offers while you refine the data:
- If your matched‑pair or regression estimate shows an uplift that clears carrying costs and reduces time on market, price in the premium.
- If price differences are small but adjacent parcels sell faster, use adjacency as a marketing lever to shorten your hold time.
- If the sample is thin or mixed, apply a conservative adjustment in the 1 to 3 percent range and make final calls based on lot fundamentals and current demand.
- Always quantify in dollars. A 4 percent uplift may mean very different things on a $75,000 lot versus a $900,000 improved property.
Turning Hawk II considerations
- Buyer mix in Ocala includes equestrian and outdoor‑lifestyle segments that may value trail adjacency, especially near the Florida Horse Park and similar attractions. Awareness and marketing of trail access can influence how strongly this shows up in offers.
- Buildability matters. A bordering lot with constrained usable area can still trade below a better interior lot.
- Privacy perceptions vary. Some buyers love the backdrop of protected land, while others worry about activity near the boundary.
- Sample size can be a constraint inside a single subdivision. If data are sparse, widen the time window or carefully include nearby subdivisions with Greenway frontage.
Quick checklist before you price
- Confirm true boundary adjacency with GIS, not just listing remarks.
- Verify legal or practical access expectations.
- Pull full MLS history for list, sold, DOM, and concessions.
- Control for acreage, utilities, road type, flood and wetlands.
- Build matched pairs and calculate the median paired premium.
- If possible, run a light regression with sale‑date controls.
- Translate percentage effects into dollar terms and revisit pricing.
Bottom line for Turning Hawk II
Trail adjacency in Turning Hawk II can matter, but it is one attribute among many. The most reliable way to price it is to classify parcels precisely, control for the big drivers like acreage and utilities, and compare recent local sales using matched pairs and a simple model. Expect a small to moderate premium if the buyer pool values outdoor access and the lot fundamentals are strong. If the premium is ambiguous, lean on faster time to contract as a tactical advantage and keep your price discipline.
Ready to apply this framework to your parcel or shortlist and see the numbers in black and white? Schedule a one‑to‑one consult and a tailored comp set today with Unknown Company.
FAQs
What does trail adjacency mean in Turning Hawk II?
- In this analysis, “adjacent” means a parcel boundary directly touches the Cross Florida Greenway boundary. “Near‑adjacent” is within about 0.25 mile, and “interior” is everything else in the subdivision.
Does trail adjacency always increase price in Turning Hawk II?
- Not always. A premium is more likely when the lot has good access, utilities, and usable acreage, and when buyers value outdoor access. Poor fundamentals can offset adjacency.
How should I compare adjacent and interior sales fairly?
- Use matched pairs within the same time window and control for acreage, utilities, and build status. Then check median differences in price per acre and days on market.
What if there are only a few recent sales in the subdivision?
- Extend the window to as much as 48 months with time adjustments, or carefully pool with nearby subdivisions that border the Greenway while controlling for location.
Can trail adjacency shorten days on market in Ocala?
- It can. If a subset of buyers actively seeks Greenway access, adjacent parcels may attract faster offers even when the price premium is modest.
